The Dissociative Effects of Institutional Versus Personal and General Social Trust on Democracy

Abstract

This research, which covers 100 countries representing 88.5% of the world's population, reveals a nuanced relationship between trust and democracy, employing various methods such as instrumental variables, panel data fixed effects analysis, and alternative measures of democracy. Personal trust and general social trust are associated with increased democracy, a more liberal political culture, and better governance. In contrast, institutional trust is associated with reduced democracy, lower political engagement, decreased government effectiveness, and diminished concern for civil liberties. This effect is correlated with poverty, women's economic participation, and religious diversity. Underprivileged groups, like poor and women with limited economic roles, mitigate the negative association of institutional trust on democracy. Additionally, religious diversity increases the negative association of institutional trust and democracy. Despite democratic costs, constituents likely maintain higher institutional trust driven by rational interests, prompting the need for vigilant governance and checks on power. The implications challenge traditional policy prescriptions that assume governments inherently act to promote democracy, highlighting that high institutional trust can enable governments to pursue self‐interested agendas that may erode democratic norms. The findings emphasize the need for reforms focused on strengthening independent oversight bodies, empowering civil society, protecting press freedom, and fostering external constraints on executive power. Ultimately, durable democratic governance depends not on governmental goodwill but on vigilant institutions and active public participation that reshape political incentives toward transparency and accountability.