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Income Volatility and Poverty Dynamics in Brazil

Pedro H. G. Ferreira de Souza et al.

Economia, the Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA)2026https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.531article
ABDC B
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0.50

Abstract

This paper investigates poverty dynamics in Brazil, highlighting how the frequency and patterns of movements into and out of poverty shape our understanding of stratification, social mobility, and the design of public policies. Using PNADC microdata from 2015 to 2020, we develop and implement an algorithm (Pynad) that links individuals and households across survey waves to construct panels. We then compare results across three measures of intertemporal poverty. The findings show that the choice of measure substantially affects estimated poverty levels. Transitory poverty contributes markedly to overall poverty in nearly all combinations of lines and measures, although its relative weight declines as the poverty line rises. These results suggest that, while poverty monitoring may rely on cross-sectional data, the design of public policies must take poverty dynamics into account, as the size of the target population varies considerably across approaches. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for targeted income transfer programs. JEL Classification Codes: I32; D31; D63

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.531

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@article{pedro2026,
  title        = {{Income Volatility and Poverty Dynamics in Brazil}},
  author       = {Pedro H. G. Ferreira de Souza et al.},
  journal      = {Economia, the Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA)},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31389/eco.531},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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