Gravity of innovation: how R&D capacity and climate suitability shape international seed potato trade

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to investigate whether and how climate suitability and agricultural research and development (R&D) jointly shape global seed potato trade. Design/methodology/approach A climate suitability index (CSI) is constructed using a data-driven approach that combines temperature, precipitation, and elevation. The CSI is integrated into a structural gravity framework estimated with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood using 556,094 observations across 24,178 country pairs from 2000–2022. Explanatory variables include agricultural R&D intensity, trade policy measures and standard gravity controls. Findings The results reveal a state-dependent role of agricultural R&D governed by climate suitability. For climatically constrained importing countries, higher R&D intensity raises seed potato imports by 20–23%, confirming its role as absorptive capacity for foreign technologies. However, when local climate conditions are favorable, R&D reduces import dependence by enhancing self-sufficiency. Exporter performance is dominated by ecological endowments, with limited contributions from R&D. Component-level analysis identifies precipitation as the binding climatic constraint: higher rainfall reduces import demand but enhances exporter competitiveness. Originality/value Building on prior studies that examine climate factors and agricultural R&D largely in isolation, this paper extends the literature by integrating both within a unified structural gravity framework. Combining a crop-specific, data-driven CSI with bilateral trade flows, it provides evidence of a state-dependent relationship between R&D and trade – consistent with complementarity under climate constraints and substitution when climate conditions are favorable – in agricultural input markets.