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Empirical Evaluation of CBAM and ETS Linkages: Impacts on Trade, Welfare, and Developing Country Exporters

Do Phu Hai

Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies2025https://doi.org/10.65767/0278-839x.2025.50.05article
ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

The operationalization of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) alongside its Emissions Trading System (ETS) presents a critical, yet under-explored, nexus of trade and climate policy. This study fills that empirical gap by applying gravity-model estimations and stylized computable general equilibrium simulations to six developing-country exporters (Vietnam, Indonesia, Morocco, South Africa, Egypt, and India). We show that the CBAM×ETS linkage contracts carbon-intensive exports by 9–21%—with variations driven by emission intensity and adaptive capacity—and nearly doubles EU welfare losses relative to an ETS-only regime. By integrating bilateral trade-elasticity estimates with welfare modeling, we deliver the first multidimensional empirical assessment of climate-linked border adjustments, offering a rigorous framework for designing equitable, effective carbon-pricing measures in global trade.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.65767/0278-839x.2025.50.05

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@article{do2025,
  title        = {{Empirical Evaluation of CBAM and ETS Linkages: Impacts on Trade, Welfare, and Developing Country Exporters}},
  author       = {Do Phu Hai},
  journal      = {Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.65767/0278-839x.2025.50.05},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.