Projection Bias in Individual Football Ticket Purchases

Michał Kowalik & Tim Pawlowski

Journal of Sports Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025261422471article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

By merging fine-grained association football (soccer) ticket data with detailed weather information, we present a novel setting to test projection bias in the field. Since football fans must verify their identity for both ticket purchase and stadium entry, we are able to explore the effect of interest at the individual level. Overall, our findings suggest that intertemporal decision-making by sports consumers is indeed systematically biased. Moreover, we offer some initial evidence in line with the literature on hedonic consumption, since decision-making by women seems to be stronger affected by weather compared to men.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025261422471

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{michał2026,
  title        = {{Projection Bias in Individual Football Ticket Purchases}},
  author       = {Michał Kowalik & Tim Pawlowski},
  journal      = {Journal of Sports Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025261422471},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.