How Important Are Consumer Confidence Shocks for the Propagation of Business Cycles in Bulgaria?

Aleksandar Vasilev

Problems of Economic Transition2022https://doi.org/10.1080/10611991.2022.2153509article
ABDC B
Weight
0.34

What the paper says

This article takes an otherwise standard real-business-cycle setup with a government sector, and augments it with shocks to consumer confidence to study business-cycle fluctuations. A surprise increase in consumer confidence generates higher utility, as the household values consumption more in that scenario. As a test case, the model is calibrated to Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999–2018). We find that shocks to consumer confidence by themselves cannot be the main driving force behind business cycle fluctuations, but when combined with technology shocks, model performance improves substantially. Therefore, allowing for additional factors, such as consumer confidence, to interact with technology shocks can be useful in explaining business cycle movements.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/10611991.2022.2153509

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@article{aleksandar2022,
  title        = {{How Important Are Consumer Confidence Shocks for the Propagation of Business Cycles in Bulgaria?}},
  author       = {Aleksandar Vasilev},
  journal      = {Problems of Economic Transition},
  year         = {2022},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/10611991.2022.2153509},
}

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How Important Are Consumer Confidence Shocks for the Propagation of Business Cycles in Bulgaria?

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Evidence weight

0.34

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.00 × 0.4 = 0.00
M · momentum0.80 × 0.15 = 0.12
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.