Winning and Losing in the EU Referendum Vote: Durational Effects of the Electoral Winner-Loser Gap in Satisfaction with Democracy

What the paper says

Can losers of once-in-a-generation referenda ever regain faith in democracy? Previous research indicates that elections and referenda can both lower losers’ satisfaction with democracy and increase that of the winners. As long as people win some in addition to losing some, there appears to be little concern that satisfaction will polarize along partisan lines. However, for once-in-a-generation referenda such as Britain’s EU Referendum, there is little chance for losers to chalk up a compensatory win, potentially exacerbating and solidifying the winner-loser gap. This research note extends previous research into the consequences of Britain’s EU Referendum on satisfaction with democracy by analyzing 5 years of panel data across the Brexit period—from the referendum announcement through to the UK’s exit from the EU. Our analyses demonstrate dramatic swings in winners’ and losers’ satisfaction with democracy across those 5 years, often corresponding with Brexit-related events. Most tellingly, after the United Kingdom finally left the EU, there is a notable, though modest, continuation of the winner-loser gap initially triggered by the EU Referendum outcome—suggesting once-in-a-generation referenda can durably fracture democratic satisfaction in ways regular elections do not. These findings have implications for democracies contemplating major constitutional or sovereignty referenda.