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Global bank lending during political conflicts

Piotr Danisewicz et al.

Journal of Financial Intermediation2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2026.101208article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

We examine global bank lending during geopolitical conflicts. Exploiting Russia’s 2014 countersanctions on the European agricultural industry, we analyze global banks’ syndicated lending to affected firms. We document a significant increase in credit supply to the sanctioned industry, accompanied by a significant increase in the shares of loans with lower spreads and longer maturities. The expansion of credit is not driven by incumbent banks alone. Instead, banks with little prior exposure to agriculture—particularly foreign banks headquartered in alternative export destinations where European firms are likely to redirect trade—account for a considerable proportion of the increased lending. This finding suggests banks actively rebalance their loan portfolio and strategic positioning in response to shifting trade flows. Our findings highlight the role of banks as intermediaries that adjust credit allocation across sectors during geopolitical disruptions, thereby cushioning targeted industries and facilitating their transition toward new markets.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2026.101208

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@article{piotr2026,
  title        = {{Global bank lending during political conflicts}},
  author       = {Piotr Danisewicz et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Financial Intermediation},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2026.101208},
}

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Global bank lending during political conflicts

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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