Covariance change point localisation and inference in fragmented functional data

Abstract

We study the problem of covariance change point localisation and inference for sequentially collected fragmented functional data, where each curve is observed only over discrete grids randomly sampled over a short fragment. The sequence of underlying covariance functions is assumed to be piecewise constant, with changes happening at unknown time points. To localise the change points, we propose a computationally efficient fragmented functional dynamic programming (FFDP) algorithm with consistent change point localisation rates. With an extra step of local refinement, we derive the limiting distributions for the refined change point estimators in two different regimes where the minimal jump size vanishes and where it remains constant as the sample size diverges. Such results are the first time seen in the fragmented functional data literature. As a byproduct of independent interest, we also present a non-asymptotic result on the estimation error of the covariance function estimators over intervals with change points. Our result accounts for the effects of the sampling grid size within each fragment under novel identifiability conditions. Extensive numerical studies are also provided to support our theoretical results.