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Adjustment through revenue or spending? Fiscal adjustment scenarios based on estimated multiplier effects

Marina da Silva Sanches et al.

Estudos Economicos2026https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575612mhgarticle
ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Abstract This paper contributes to the literature on fiscal multipliers by estimating the effects of changes in revenue and in five groups of expenditures: public investment, social benefits, subsidies, personnel expenses, and other expenditures. We find that the strongest effects arise from shocks on public investments and social benefits, with both having a positive correlation with the sign of the shock. Increases in revenues, on the other hand, have statistically significant negative effects only in the short-run. The paper estimates the effects on GDP, primary balance, and public indebtedness of different fiscal consolidation scenarios. Results indicate that it is possible to combine reductions in the public indebtedness-to-GDP ratio with increases in GDP with a rebalancing of fiscal policy towards public investment and social spending and away from subsidies.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575612mhg

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@article{marina2026,
  title        = {{Adjustment through revenue or spending? Fiscal adjustment scenarios based on estimated multiplier effects}},
  author       = {Marina da Silva Sanches et al.},
  journal      = {Estudos Economicos},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575612mhg},
}

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Adjustment through revenue or spending? Fiscal adjustment scenarios based on estimated multiplier effects

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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