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Is overconfidence an individual difference?

Sophia Li et al.

Judgment and Decision Making2025https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2025.11article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.48

Abstract

Some scholars have treated overconfidence as an individual difference—that is, assuming the tendency to be overconfident is stable within a person and differs meaningfully from person to person. We question this assumption. We investigate consistency within individuals between its three forms—overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision—in multiple domains (Study 1a and 1b), at multiple times (Study 1b and 2), and with multiple measures (Study 3a and 3b). We find mixed evidence of trait-like consistency. We do find some evidence of within-individual stability across domains and time points. However, we find little consistency across different measures of the same form of overconfidence—specifically overprecision. Instead, we find more consistent evidence that overconfidence varies situationally and contextually.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2025.11

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@article{sophia2025,
  title        = {{Is overconfidence an individual difference?}},
  author       = {Sophia Li et al.},
  journal      = {Judgment and Decision Making},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2025.11},
}

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Evidence weight

0.48

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.41 × 0.4 = 0.16
M · momentum0.63 × 0.15 = 0.09
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.