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A Structural Measure of Bargaining Fragility in Multi-Domain Agreements

Robert Castro

Games2026https://doi.org/10.3390/g17010011article
AJG 1ABDC B
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0.50

Abstract

Negotiation outcomes are commonly analyzed through equilibrium concepts, yet many agreements fail during implementation for reasons not captured by incentive structure alone This paper introduces a pre-equilibrium screening criterion for bargaining fragility based on a small set of agreement-level quantities characterizing dependency architecture: strain τ (the number of operative obligations requiring tracking), curvature κ (the density and strength of interdependencies among elements), compressibility σ (the extent to which complexity can be reduced through modularization without altering functional meaning), and the stability quotient Γ = κ/τ (average interdependence burden per element). We use the inequality Γ > σ as a classification rule; agreements with Γ > σ are classified as structurally fragile and, in the data, exhibit higher sensitivity to perturbations. Across 42 documented agreements, the diagnostic correctly classifies nearly all observed outcomes, with only a single false positive and no false negatives. The framework operates as a pre-equilibrium screen that complements (rather than replaces) Nash and bargaining equilibrium analyses by identifying agreement architectures that are structurally brittle under small shocks.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/g17010011

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@article{robert2026,
  title        = {{A Structural Measure of Bargaining Fragility in Multi-Domain Agreements}},
  author       = {Robert Castro},
  journal      = {Games},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3390/g17010011},
}

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A Structural Measure of Bargaining Fragility in Multi-Domain Agreements

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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