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Optimal designs for discrete-time survival models with competing risks

XiaoDong Zhou et al.

Lifetime Data Analysis: an international journal devoted to the methods and applications of reliability and survival analysis2026https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-026-09695-0article
ABDC B
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0.50

What the paper says

Current methodological research on randomized controlled trial design has predominantly focused on studies with a single primary endpoint. However, many trials in practice involve multiple competing target events. The optimal designs for survival trials with competing target events have not been systematically addressed in the statistical literature. This paper fills this significant gap by developing design methodologies for randomized discrete-time-to-event trials with competing endpoints. We derive the Fisher information matrix for the general discrete-time survival model (DTSM) by transforming the original discrete-time survival data into proper multinomial responses. By introducing a cost-based generalized [Formula: see text]-optimal design criterion, we identify various types of optimal designs for estimating the treatment effects. Under the assumption of a parametric competing risks model for the underlying survival process, we demonstrate that the optimal treatment allocation scheme is critically influenced by the parameter values within this model. Our methodology is applied to the redesign of the SANAD trial, which examines withdrawal times from anti-epileptic drugs, thereby highlighting the advantages of our optimal design strategies. A key finding is that assigning subjects equally to the different groups in a two-arm DTSM trial with competing risks is generally a favorable choice, unless the hazard rates over the duration of the trial in both groups are low.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-026-09695-0

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@article{xiaodong2026,
  title        = {{Optimal designs for discrete-time survival models with competing risks}},
  author       = {XiaoDong Zhou et al.},
  journal      = {Lifetime Data Analysis: an international journal devoted to the methods and applications of reliability and survival analysis},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10985-026-09695-0},
}

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Optimal designs for discrete-time survival models with competing risks

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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