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Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse

Arpit Gupta et al.

The American Economic Review2026https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20231619article
FT50AJG 4*ABDC A*
Weight
0.41

Abstract

We show remote work led to large drops in lease revenues, occupancy, and market rents in the commercial office sector. We revalue New York City office buildings, taking into account both the cash flow and discount rate implications of these shocks, and find a 46 percent decline in long-run value. For all US office markets combined, we find a $556.8 billion value destruction. Higher-quality buildings were buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower-quality offices are at risk of becoming a stranded asset. These valuation changes have repercussions for financial stability and local public finances. (JEL E31, E32, G12, J22, M51, R33)

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20231619

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@article{arpit2026,
  title        = {{Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse}},
  author       = {Arpit Gupta et al.},
  journal      = {The American Economic Review},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20231619},
}

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Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse

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Evidence weight

0.41

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.25 × 0.4 = 0.10
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.