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Systemic risk in corporate bond markets: Thematic vs. Exogenous recessions

Adhiraj Sodhi & Aleksandar Stojanovic

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2026.102624article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Financial crises differ not only in severity but also in the channels through which risk propagates. This paper employs a risk classification framework distinguishing between thematic recessions – slow-building crises arising from structural imbalances – and exogenous recessions, triggered by sudden external shocks. Using corporate bond market data from the UK and US, we apply distribution-sensitive econometric techniques to trace how risk drivers evolve across the spectrum of bond risk. Each recession is segmented into three phases – pre-, during, and post-recession – and tested independently. The findings show that recession type, timing, and national context critically shape systemic vulnerabilities. Risk drivers operate in strongly non-linear ways, yet UK and US markets remain tightly interconnected, highlighting persistent cross-border co-movement. These insights demonstrate how recession characteristics shape systemic fragility, advance systemic risk analysis and risk governance, and offer actionable guidance for regulators, policymakers, and risk managers.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2026.102624

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{adhiraj2026,
  title        = {{Systemic risk in corporate bond markets: Thematic vs. Exogenous recessions}},
  author       = {Adhiraj Sodhi & Aleksandar Stojanovic},
  journal      = {The North American Journal of Economics and Finance},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2026.102624},
}

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Systemic risk in corporate bond markets: Thematic vs. Exogenous recessions

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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