arbiter
JournalsAccount

Impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria

Emmanuel Patrick Iwe

African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics2025https://doi.org/10.53936/afjare.2025.20(3).18article
ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

This study examines how climate variability affects agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria using time-series data from 1960 to 2024. The analysis applies trend examination, cointegration testing, vector error-correction models (VECM), mediation analysis, structural break tests and Markov switching models to evaluate dynamic linkages between climate variables, crop and livestock output, and GDP. The results show that crop productivity significantly mediates the relationship between climate and economic growth, while livestock plays a minimal role. Short-run rainfall and humidity shocks reduce output, while temperature exerts a positive long-run influence. Structural breaks align with key policy and climate transitions. The study recommends targeted investment in irrigation, high-quality seeds and early warning systems to build climate resilience in crop production and improve the sector’s economic contribution.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.53936/afjare.2025.20(3).18

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{emmanuel2025,
  title        = {{Impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria}},
  author       = {Emmanuel Patrick Iwe},
  journal      = {African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.53936/afjare.2025.20(3).18},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity and economic growth in Nigeria

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.