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Growth preference and air pollution in China

Xiaoming Ma & Jianglong Li

Environment and Development Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x26100497article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

We estimate the causal effects of local officials’ growth preferences on air pollution. Leveraging the unprecedented and uneven economic shocks caused by COVID-19, which resulted in substantial changes in gross domestic product growth rankings, we analyse variations in growth preferences. Our findings reveal that a 10-unit change in growth rankings leads to significant increases in Air Quality Index and ambient pollutant concentrations. Key predictors of this increased pollution include factors sensitive to governmental influence, such as fixed investments, industrial activities and registration requirements for polluting companies. Finally, we characterize the cautious behaviours of local officials in balancing economic and environmental objectives within China's context of multiple, yet unequally weighted, tasks. Our study illuminates how growth preferences contribute to environmental consequences and underscores the strategic responses with political motivations to meet dual conflicting targets set by higher authorities.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x26100497

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@article{xiaoming2026,
  title        = {{Growth preference and air pollution in China}},
  author       = {Xiaoming Ma & Jianglong Li},
  journal      = {Environment and Development Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x26100497},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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