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Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data

Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics2026https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200022article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata to study firm recruiting intensity across establishments and over time. We show that large heterogeneity in vacancy-filling rates is fully accounted for by differences in gross hiring rates. We develop a theory consistent with these facts and, guided by it, construct a firm-based measure of Aggregate Recruiting Intensity (ARI). ARI is strongly procyclical, driven mainly by declines in recruiting efforts in slack labor markets. We also propose a simple proxy ARI index using publicly available macro data. ARI fluctuations explain about 40 percent of aggregate match-efficiency volatility from 2002 to 2019. (JEL D22, E32, J23, J41, J63, M51)

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200022

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@article{simon2026,
  title        = {{Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data}},
  author       = {Simon Mongey & Gianluca Violante},
  journal      = {American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200022},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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