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Impact of macroeconomic conditions on presidential approval ratings

Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Matheus Rodrigues

Estudos Economicos2025https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575541mmmrarticle
ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and presidential approval ratings in Brazil spanning from 1996 to 2023. Employing the Two Stage Least Squares technique of instrumental variables estimation to mitigate endogeneity issues within domestic macroeconomic indicators, the study explores the impact of the output gap, food inflation, real exchange rate and terms of trade on presidential approval. Controlling for each president’s term and major political developments in the country, the analysis reveals statistically significant relationships between these macroeconomic factors and presidential approval, underscoring the profound link between the economy and the success of an incumbent administration.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575541mmmr

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@article{marcelo2025,
  title        = {{Impact of macroeconomic conditions on presidential approval ratings}},
  author       = {Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Matheus Rodrigues},
  journal      = {Estudos Economicos},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575541mmmr},
}

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Impact of macroeconomic conditions on presidential approval ratings

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.