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Beliefs about demographic change: how well are individuals informed?

Elisa Stumpf et al.

Journal of Pension Economics and Finance2025https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747225100073article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Demographic change is one of Germany’s most pressing social and economic challenges. Using data from a representative telephone survey, we analyze how well informed respondents are about the magnitude of demographic change and what factors influence the accuracy of their beliefs. We find that respondents tend to overestimate the old-age dependency ratio when considering the current and long-term demographic situation separately. However, their beliefs regarding the change of the old-age dependency ratios over the considered period are not far from the projected change. A better understanding of the German statutory pension insurance plays an important role for more accurate beliefs.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747225100073

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@article{elisa2025,
  title        = {{Beliefs about demographic change: how well are individuals informed?}},
  author       = {Elisa Stumpf et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Pension Economics and Finance},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1474747225100073},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.