Does food inflation affect how long we live? The role of economic development and political instability
Karim Mimouni et al.
Abstract
Purpose This paper aims to examine the macroeconomic impact of food inflation on life expectancy in 19 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries from 2000 to 2023, highlighting how income levels, health crises and political instability shape the welfare consequences of price shocks. Design/methodology/approach We employ generalized method of moments and threshold panel estimation techniques to address endogeneity and capture potential non-linearities in the relationship between food inflation and life expectancy. Life expectancy is modeled as a development indicator influenced by real income effects and price-driven constraints on health investment. Findings The analysis reveals a pronounced threshold effect: in countries with per capita income below $13,700, rising food prices significantly reduce life expectancy, reflecting weakened purchasing power, reduced nutritional intake and rising psychological stress. In contrast, higher-income MENA countries exhibit greater resilience due to fiscal capacity, food subsidies and social protection programs. The COVID-19 health crisis and the political instability, particularly in the aftermath of the 2011 uprisings, magnify the adverse effects in vulnerable states. The findings also show gender- and income-specific heterogeneity in the transmission of food price shocks. Additionally, the study uncovers several transmission mechanisms that mediate the relationship between food inflation and life expectancy. Practical implications The study highlights the asymmetric welfare costs of food inflation and the need for income-contingent stabilization policies, robust social safety nets and institutional mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of economic food price shocks, particularly in politically fragile settings. Originality/value This research contributes to the economics of development and public health by offering new evidence on the non-linear and politically mediated effects of food inflation. It bridges gaps in the literature by integrating macroeconomic theory, political economy and health outcomes within a unified empirical framework.
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
| M · momentum | 0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.