EU policy on forest carbon sinks revisited

What the paper says

The European Union’s (EU) policy for Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) sets carbon sink targets for LULUCF for 2021–2030. Managed forests play a key role in achieving them. Using a global forest sector model, we projected forest sector development with and without meeting the sink target during 2026–2030 under the LULUCF regulation. We also assessed changes in the global harvested wood product sink and greenhouse gas effects from material substitution that could result if the targets were met. Moreover, we examined the combined impact of meeting LULUCF goals and one possible implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, which seeks to conserve 30 % of EU land by 2030. Constant changes in emission statistics and other factors affecting LULUCF sinks complicate impact assessments, introducing uncertainty into our results. Under the assumptions made in this study, achieving sink targets, with or without additional forest conservation, requires an immediate and steep reduction in roundwood harvesting in EU member states and Norway (EU+N). This cut could reach 113–117 million m 3 in 2030–2035 compared to a market-driven scenario, assuming no further policy tightening after 2030. Two-thirds of this decrease is projected to be offset by higher harvesting elsewhere, shifting income from EU+N to other regions and reducing the climate gains. Our indicative calculation suggests that the emission reduction costs could exceed €700/t CO₂. Given the high economic burden and availability of more cost-effective alternatives, the role of managed forests in EU climate policy warrants a reconsideration. • Meeting the land use sector sink goal leads to huge harvest leakage from Europe. • Meeting the land use sector sink target causes decline in sawnwood consumption. • European Union’s land use sector sink target offers limited climate benefits. • The cost of meeting the European Union’s land use sector sink goal is extremely high.