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Weather‐Induced Positive Sentiment and Insider Trading

Douglas Cumming et al.

European Financial Management2026https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.70057article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Exploiting variations in sunshine exposure near insiders' locations, we find that weather‐induced positive sentiment leads to higher insider purchases, albeit with lower performance. Overoptimism induced by abnormally good weather serves as the underlying mechanism. The effect is more pronounced when insiders' purchase decisions are fuelled by their optimistic interpretation of perceived private information. Insiders' personal characteristics, including executive ranks, age, gender, and educational qualifications, also moderate the effect. Our findings highlight the important yet overlooked influence of weather‐induced sentiment on insider trading.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.70057

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@article{douglas2026,
  title        = {{Weather‐Induced Positive Sentiment and Insider Trading}},
  author       = {Douglas Cumming et al.},
  journal      = {European Financial Management},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.70057},
}

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Weather‐Induced Positive Sentiment and Insider Trading

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.