Oil Price and Geopolitics Risk: New Causality Insights in Frequency-Domain

Mihai Mutaşcu

Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis2024https://doi.org/10.31577/ekoncas.2023.08-09.01article
ABDC B
Weight
0.49

Abstract

The paper explores the causality between oil price and geopolitical risk at global level by using the short-and long-run test of causality in the frequencydomain, over the period May, 1987 -April, 2020. For robustness checks, alternative tools in time-domain and additional variables are also considered. The key result claims that the oil price is a crucial signal for geopolitical risk on short-(i.e. up to 3 months) and long-run (i.e. more than 9 months) through its threats component. Interesting, no evidence shows that the oil price can explain the geopolitical acts per se. The results remain robust under the influence of global real economic activity in industrial commodity market. Surprisingly, no causality running from geopolitical risk to oil price is found.

2 citations

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31577/ekoncas.2023.08-09.01

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{mihai2024,
  title        = {{Oil Price and Geopolitics Risk: New Causality Insights in Frequency-Domain}},
  author       = {Mihai Mutaşcu},
  journal      = {Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis},
  year         = {2024},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.31577/ekoncas.2023.08-09.01},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Oil Price and Geopolitics Risk: New Causality Insights in Frequency-Domain

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.


Evidence weight

0.49

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.47 × 0.4 = 0.19
M · momentum0.55 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.