Unemployment spiral created by internal migration in Türkiye: a regional analysis

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to analyze the interrelationship between internal migration, socioeconomic variables and unemployment across 26 NUTS2 sub-regions of Türkiye over the period 2008–2021. The time frame was selected due to pronounced regional economic divergence and accelerated internal mobility patterns in Türkiye. Design/methodology/approach The empirical strategy is grounded in the extended Harris-Todaro Migration Model and employs the seemingly unrelated regression method for spatial panel data to account for cross-sectional dependence and spatial autocorrelation. Spatial weight matrices were constructed based on two criteria: border neighborhood and dynamic migration. Findings The results demonstrate that higher levels of civic association density and agricultural output are positively associated with net migration rates, whereas increases in per capita income and fixed capital investment exhibit a statistically significant negative effect. In the models where regional unemployment is specified as the dependent variable, net migration emerges as a significant positive determinant, indicating that migratory inflows exert upward pressure on unemployment levels in destination regions. These findings suggest a recursive feedback mechanism: structurally weaker regions with low agricultural productivity and income levels experience labor outflows, which, upon agglomeration in urban centers, exacerbate unemployment, reinforcing the so-called migration-unemployment spiral. This cyclical dynamic underlines the endogenous nature of regional disparities and labor market imbalances. Research limitations/implications These findings suggest a recursive feedback mechanism: structurally weaker regions with low agricultural productivity and income levels experience labor outflows, which, upon agglomeration in urban centers, exacerbate unemployment – reinforcing the so-called migration-unemployment spiral. This cyclical dynamic underlines the endogenous nature of regional disparities and labor market imbalances. Originality/value The study emphasizes the necessity of targeted regional development policies aimed at enhancing local economic resilience, particularly in agriculture and productive investment, to mitigate involuntary migration and its associated labor market distortions. These results offer actionable insights for policy formulation in the context of spatial labor market equilibrium and regional development strategy. Furthermore, this study introduces a novel variable – civic association density, representing local kinship and hometown networks–hometown associations – absent from previous empirical research. Incorporating this unique social capital indicator into the migration–unemployment framework enriches the literature and offers new insights into spatial labor market dynamics.