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Nonlinear effects of ageing population and AI on China’s GDP growth: a threshold analysis

Jintao Shi et al.

Journal of Business Economics and Management2026https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2026.25754article
AJG 2ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

This research empirically explores the influences of ageing on China’s GDP growth, incorporating Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a moderating factor. Specifically, industrial robot penetration was used as a proxy for AI adoption. This research selects panel data in 31 provinces of China (2000–2022). The nonlinear association between ageing population and GDP growth is examined using panel threshold regression models, while threshold variables are ageing and AI adoption, respectively. To verify the robustnes, the old-age dependency ratio is utilized as a proxy of ageing population. According to the findings, GDP growth is initially negatively affected by ageing population. However, when AI adoption surpasses a critical threshold, this negative effect is significantly mitigated. This finding highlights the importance of AI adoption in managing the economic challenges brought by ageing. Therefore, some valuable recommendations have been put forward to support inclusive and sustainable economic development. These include greater investment in research and expansion concerning AI, promoting AI-driven robotics in key sectors, and offering targeted skilling programs for elderly employees. Further suggestions are to invest in digital infrastructures and the industry of ageing, as well as to leverage and develop elderly human capital.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2026.25754

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@article{jintao2026,
  title        = {{Nonlinear effects of ageing population and AI on China’s GDP growth: a threshold analysis}},
  author       = {Jintao Shi et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Business Economics and Management},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2026.25754},
}

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0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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