arbiter
JournalsAccount

The power of prevention – a lifeline for the NHS?

L. Mayhew & Andrew J. G. Cairns

British Actuarial Journal2025https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321725000169article
AJG 1ABDC B
Weight
0.37

Abstract

Governments all over the world are struggling to control the spiralling costs of healthcare – the UK government is no exception. Its long-term strategy includes a much greater focus on prevention: to keep people as healthy and productive as possible for longer. This paper asks whether a greater focus on prevention is a possible lifeline for the National Health Service (NHS) as is often claimed, but it also examines other benefits to society. After considering various examples of prevention and the metrics used to measure their effectiveness, we use tobacco consumption as a case study to evaluate the costs to the public purse and to wider society. We give further examples, including obesity, but in less depth. We find that whilst there are significant benefits to public expenditure, including the NHS, in both cases, these are dwarfed by wider benefits to society both in terms of tangible economic benefits and improved well-being. We offer several suggestions for improving our understanding of the effectiveness of prevention policies in general and how the Actuarial profession can contribute to this debate.

1 citation

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321725000169

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{l.2025,
  title        = {{The power of prevention – a lifeline for the NHS?}},
  author       = {L. Mayhew & Andrew J. G. Cairns},
  journal      = {British Actuarial Journal},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321725000169},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

The power of prevention – a lifeline for the NHS?

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.