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Preserve, Pressure, Protect, and Peel: The US–China Rivalry and the Politics of Vaccine Provision

Rikio Inouye

International Studies Quarterly2026https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqag005article
AJG 4ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Abstracts Lead states compete for influence and followers, and the COVID-19 pandemic served as an important reminder that health aid can be a foreign policy tool. How and to which countries do states distribute aid amidst a global crisis and great power rivalry? This article integrates multiple literatures and presents a novel typology of strategies: preserving existing partnerships, pressuring opponents, protecting recipients based on need, and peeling off countries from geopolitical rivals. It analyzes how the US and China distributed life-saving COVID-19 vaccines through 2021-2022. Regression results and Bayesian reasoning of original elite interviews suggest the US approach is characterized by protecting and peeling, while patterns of Chinese distribution suggest a combination of pressuring, preserving, and protecting. Case studies of Paraguay and Nicaragua – historic allies of Taiwan - further support these conclusions. This raises questions regarding the circumstances under which aid provision is instrumental and how rivals compete during global crises.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqag005

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@article{rikio2026,
  title        = {{Preserve, Pressure, Protect, and Peel: The US–China Rivalry and the Politics of Vaccine Provision}},
  author       = {Rikio Inouye},
  journal      = {International Studies Quarterly},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqag005},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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