arbiter
JournalsAccount

Globally informed and locally refined: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern United States forest sector

Richard H. Manner et al.

Forest Policy and Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103755article
ABDC B
Weight
0.50

Abstract

This study integrates recently updated National-Scale Volume Biomass (NSVB) estimates with a spatially-aware carbon accounting methodology in the SubRegional Timber Supply (SRTS) model to project forest market dynamics, land use change, inventory, and carbon fluxes for the Southeastern United States through 2070. Using four socioeconomic scenarios from the 2020 Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment aligned with IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), we analyze how global market demands interact with regional forest management, market, and carbon dynamics. Results indicate declining softwood pulpwood prices across all scenarios despite increasing demand, driven by inventory accumulation while sawtimber markets show flat to rising prices under most scenarios. We project a relatively stable carbon sink coming from managed planted pine systems, despite an overall decline in the regional aboveground forest carbon sink. This finding underscores the important contribution planted systems can have to the US and global LULUCF carbon sinks. A bootstrapped sensitivity analysis conducted around the elasticity assumptions reveals the extent to which inventory parameters influence the results compared with supply or demand assumptions. These findings illustrate the importance of market-responsive management in shaping future forest carbon trajectories. • Planted Pine systems are an important, stable source of carbon flux in the Southeast. • Low levels of softwood pulp demand with high inventory lead to depressed prices. • The SRTS model is most sensitive to inventory elasticities assumptions.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103755

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{richard2026,
  title        = {{Globally informed and locally refined: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern United States forest sector}},
  author       = {Richard H. Manner et al.},
  journal      = {Forest Policy and Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2026.103755},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Globally informed and locally refined: Market, management, and carbon projections for the Southeastern United States forest sector

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.