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The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal

Davis Kedrosky & Nuno Palma

The Journal of Economic History2025https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050725100764preprint
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.55

Abstract

As late as 1750, Portugal had a high output per head by Western European standards. Yet just a century later, Portugal was this region’s poorest country. In this paper, we show that the discovery of massive quantities of gold in Brazil over the eighteenth century played a key role in the long-run development of Portugal. The country suffered from an economic and political resource curse. A counterfactual based on synthetic control methods suggests that by 1800 Portugal’s GDP per capita was 40 percent lower than it would have been without its endowment of Brazilian gold.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050725100764

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@article{davis2025,
  title        = {{The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal}},
  author       = {Davis Kedrosky & Nuno Palma},
  journal      = {The Journal of Economic History},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050725100764},
}

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The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal

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Evidence weight

0.55

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.55 × 0.4 = 0.22
M · momentum0.70 × 0.15 = 0.10
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.