Machine Learning May not Outperform ARMAX in Forecasting Stock Returns

Tsung-wu Ho & Ya-chi Lin

Open Economies Review2026https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-026-09852-warticle
AJG 2ABDC B
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0.50

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-026-09852-w

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@article{tsung-wu2026,
  title        = {{Machine Learning May not Outperform ARMAX in Forecasting Stock Returns}},
  author       = {Tsung-wu Ho & Ya-chi Lin},
  journal      = {Open Economies Review},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-026-09852-w},
}

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Machine Learning May not Outperform ARMAX in Forecasting Stock Returns

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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