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Are Heavy-Duty Vehicles at Crossroads? A Real Options and Innovation Diffusion Perspective on Hydrogen Fuel Cell Versus Battery Electric Trucks

Oana Ionescu & Alain Y. Kibangou

Energy Journal2026https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574261425748article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

The transition from diesel to zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) is a critical decision for industry stakeholders, shaped by uncertainty, technological competition, and irreversible investments. This research examines how fleet operators navigate the choice between fuel cell hydrogen (FCH) and battery electric (BE) HDV, considering market dynamics, policy incentives, and infrastructure development. Using a real options framework, we capture the value of waiting for new information before committing to decarbonization, while integrating innovation diffusion models to account for adoption patterns. We determine when a fleet should switch to FCH HDV and how many vehicles to adopt at the trigger. Our approach provides insights into optimal investment timing, policy effectiveness, and the factors driving the large-scale deployment of clean HDV. JEL Classification: Q42, Alternative Energy Sources; Q48, Energy: Government Policy; R40, Transportation Economics: General; C15, Statistical Simulation Methods: General; D81, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574261425748

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@article{oana2026,
  title        = {{Are Heavy-Duty Vehicles at Crossroads? A Real Options and Innovation Diffusion Perspective on Hydrogen Fuel Cell Versus Battery Electric Trucks}},
  author       = {Oana Ionescu & Alain Y. Kibangou},
  journal      = {Energy Journal},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1177/01956574261425748},
}

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Are Heavy-Duty Vehicles at Crossroads? A Real Options and Innovation Diffusion Perspective on Hydrogen Fuel Cell Versus Battery Electric Trucks

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.