How Aggregate Growing Season Temperature Metrics May Lead to Overestimation of the Effects of High Temperatures on Crop Yields: Evidence From China

Kaixing Huang & Peng Zhang

Journal of Agricultural Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70032article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.50

Abstract

Existing studies generally use “aggregate” temperature measures—such as mean temperature, degree‐days, temperature bins, and piecewise linear functions within the growing season—to estimate the impact of global warming on crop yields. These temperature measures blend temperatures from different phenological stages of crop growth, thereby implicitly assuming that temperatures are additively substitutable within the growing season. However, this assumption contradicts agronomic knowledge, which indicates that crops are more sensitive to temperatures during certain phenological stages. Utilising unique site‐level data on the detailed phenological stages of major crops in China, combined with crop production data and daily weather data, we develop an econometric model with stage‐specific temperature measures. We then compare our estimates with models using traditional aggregate temperature measures. Our results show that adopting an aggregate temperature measure could overestimate the damage of predicted global warming on crop yields by up to two times compared to estimates using stage‐specific temperature measures.

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70032

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{kaixing2026,
  title        = {{How Aggregate Growing Season Temperature Metrics May Lead to Overestimation of the Effects of High Temperatures on Crop Yields: Evidence From China}},
  author       = {Kaixing Huang & Peng Zhang},
  journal      = {Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.70032},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

How Aggregate Growing Season Temperature Metrics May Lead to Overestimation of the Effects of High Temperatures on Crop Yields: Evidence From China

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.


Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.