arbiter
JournalsAccount

Trade Effects of US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0

Kazunobu Hayakawa

Developing Economies2026https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.70012article
ABDC B
Weight
0.37

Abstract

This is the first ex‐post study of the effect of the additional tariffs imposed by the second Trump administration (Trump 2.0) on exports to the US. These additional tariffs were announced and started to be enacted in the first and second quarters of 2025. Nevertheless, countries may have continued to export to the US even after these tariffs were imposed, partly because of the view that President Trump could raise tariffs even further in the future. To examine this anticipation effect, we analyze monthly data on exports from 31 countries (excluding China) prior to August 2025. We find significant last‐minute exports just before the additional tariffs were imposed. After that, exports to the US significantly decreased, except for some steel products. We also find that many countries significantly increased exports to other countries, especially to smaller economies, after the US imposed additional tariffs.

1 citation

Open via your library →

Cite this paper

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.70012

Or copy a formatted citation

@article{kazunobu2026,
  title        = {{Trade Effects of US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0}},
  author       = {Kazunobu Hayakawa},
  journal      = {Developing Economies},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.70012},
}

Paste directly into BibTeX, Zotero, or your reference manager.

Flag this paper

Trade Effects of US Tariffs Under Trump 2.0

Flags are reviewed by the Arbiter methodology team within 5 business days.

Evidence weight

0.37

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.53 × 0.15 = 0.08
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.