Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Oil Price Volatility and World Economic Policy Uncertainty on Inflation in Developing Countries
N’yilimon Nantob
What the paper says
This study examines the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility and global economic policy uncertainty on inflation in 74 developing countries over the period 1994Q1–2022Q4. Employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework, the analysis confirms that both oil price volatility and economic policy uncertainty exert asymmetric influences on inflation, particularly in the long run. The findings demonstrate that positive and negative shocks to oil price volatility and policy uncertainty affect inflation differently, underscoring the importance of accounting for asymmetry in modeling inflation dynamics. By highlighting the differentiated impacts of these external shocks, the study provides deeper insights into the drivers of the inflationary process in developing economies and offers useful implications for monetary and energy policy design.
Evidence weight
Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40
| F · citation impact | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
| M · momentum | 0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07 |
| V · venue signal | 0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03 |
| R · text relevance † | 0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20 |
† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.