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Regional Blocs and the Transmission of US Shocks: A GVAR Modeling Approach

Javier Emmanuel Anguiano Pita & Antonio Ruíz-Porras

Journal of Globalization and Development2025https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2024-0066article
AJG 1ABDC B
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0.50

Abstract

We analyze the role of trade linkages in the international transmission of shocks originating from the United States. We also study the effects of shocks on GDP and imports. This study employs a GVAR model and uses quarterly data for 31 countries from 1994Q1 to 2019Q4. The main findings are as follows: 1) The U.S. economy serves as a significant source of external shocks; 2) the magnitude and persistence of responses to these shocks vary across countries and regions; 3) economies in North and South America are more vulnerable to U.S. output and trade shocks than economies in the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern regions; 4) both North and South American economies, along with European economies, experience significant decreases in output in response to negative shocks to U.S. imports; and 5) trade is a crucial mechanism for the international transmission of shocks. These findings are valuable for understanding the transmission mechanisms of international shocks and the evolution of the global economy.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2024-0066

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@article{javier2025,
  title        = {{Regional Blocs and the Transmission of US Shocks: A GVAR Modeling Approach}},
  author       = {Javier Emmanuel Anguiano Pita & Antonio Ruíz-Porras},
  journal      = {Journal of Globalization and Development},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2024-0066},
}

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