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The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data

Martha Bailey et al.

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy2025https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200277article
AJG 3ABDC A*
Weight
0.57

Abstract

We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California’s 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women’s employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the weeks of paid leave available under the law. We find no evidence that CPFL increased employment, boosted earnings, or encouraged childbearing, suggesting that CPFL had little effect on the gender pay gap or child penalty. For first-time mothers, we find that CPFL reduced employment and earnings a decade after they gave birth. (JEL H24, J13, J16, J31, J32, K31)

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200277

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@article{martha2025,
  title        = {{The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data}},
  author       = {Martha Bailey et al.},
  journal      = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy},
  year         = {2025},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200277},
}

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The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data

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Evidence weight

0.57

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.57 × 0.4 = 0.23
M · momentum0.78 × 0.15 = 0.12
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.