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District expectations and strategic defection in two-tiered proportional systems: The case of the 2021 Norwegian election

Alexander Verdoes

Electoral Studies2026https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103061article
AJG 3
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Many countries employ two-tiered proportional electoral systems in which seats are allocated based on both nationwide and constituency-level results. Nonetheless, whether voters are aware of the constituency-level context and how it affects electoral behavior has received limited academic attention. Drawing on individual-level data from the Norwegian Citizen Panel collected before and after the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election, this study shows that voters are aware of the constituency-level context, as they adjust their expectations about a party's likelihood of winning a constituency seat based on local electoral strength and district magnitude. Moreover, the constituency-level context affects voting behavior: supporters of parties polling around the 4% national threshold are more likely to defect when their preferred party is electorally unviable in low-magnitude districts, whereas local party strength plays a limited role in high-magnitude districts. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both national- and constituency-level factors when analyzing electoral behavior in districted proportional systems and demonstrate that variation in district magnitude creates unequal strategic incentives across constituencies.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103061

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@article{alexander2026,
  title        = {{District expectations and strategic defection in two-tiered proportional systems: The case of the 2021 Norwegian election}},
  author       = {Alexander Verdoes},
  journal      = {Electoral Studies},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103061},
}

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District expectations and strategic defection in two-tiered proportional systems: The case of the 2021 Norwegian election

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.