Sukuk-based multi-dimensional financing for urban village renewal in China: advancing risk-sharing and inclusive housing models

Abstract

Purpose This paper addresses structural deficiencies in housing justice and institutional financing within urban village renewal, especially in China case. It aims to develop a viable alternative to conventional debt-heavy models by proposing a multi-dimensional financing model (MDFM) that integrates risk-sharing-based (sukuk-compatible) capital, cooperative ownership, government support, and public asset monetization. Design/methodology/approach The study reconstructs an SPV-based cash-flow model and calibrates it using empirical data from Hangzhou’s self-financed renewal case. A 10,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation is executed to test financial feasibility under realistic uncertainties, focusing on internal rate of return (IRR), net present value, and affordability for low-income households. Affordability metrics are benchmarked against market rent and mortgage comparators. A sensitivity analysis identifies the dominant value drivers (operational vs. financing variables). Findings The MDFM delivers a median project IRR of 7.10% and lowers median monthly resident outflow by 31% relative to market rent and by over 50% relative to a conventional mortgage, without direct facing a RMB 1.04 million down-payment. However, P10 affordability exceeds the 30% burden threshold, revealing a vulnerability cliff for low-income households. Sensitivity analysis shows that outcome variance is driven primarily by operational fundamentals (rental growth and vacancy), whereas the Sukuk redemption profile exerts minimal marginal influence. Research limitations/implications This study is validated through simulation rather than through empirical issuance or market adoption. The market appetite for sustainability-linked or Sharīʿah-aligned equity instruments in China has not yet been empirically verified. The regulatory acceptability of the model also requires qualitative validation through stakeholder interviews and expert consultations to identify concrete policy adjustments. Although calibrated to the Hangzhou case, the model’s broader applicability must be tested through further sensitivity analyses and pilot studies in cities with distinct institutional and market conditions such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Practical implications MDFM offers a scalable, fiscally sustainable solution for policymakers and developers, especially in contexts where informal settlements dominate. Its use of sukuk financing and asset-backed revenues provides a flexible alternative to conventional debt models in large-scale redevelopment. Social implications The model can pre-empt re-informalization and displacement by eliminating upfront capital barriers and embedding affordability through cooperative equity acquisition. It aligns investor profit with community stability, returns arise from sustained occupancy rather than speculative extraction. The P10 affordability cliff identifies where targeted support is required to protect vulnerable households. The design keeps residents in central labor markets, supporting job–housing balance and social mobility, and links renewal finance with low-carbon construction, enabling equity and environmental co-benefits simultaneously. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to structurally integrate Islamic finance (Sukuk) with cooperative housing principles to address China’s urban village renewal. Its originality lies in the novel, risk-sharing MDFM, rigorously validated via a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. The research provides unprecedented quantitative evidence on affordability outcomes and identifies operational performance, not financing terms, as the key value driver. It offers a groundbreaking, de-financialized pathway for urban regeneration, challenging conventional debt-driven redevelopment models and expanding the application of blended finance in a Chinese context.