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Land Concentration and Long-Run Development in the Frontier United States

Cory Smith

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics2026https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20230647article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.50

Abstract

I study the long-run economic effects of land concentration on the American frontier. Using quasi-random variation in initial land allocations from a checkerboard formula, I analyze a large database of property assessments and find that historical concentration reduced modern land values by 4.5 percent and fixed capital by 23 percent. Modern effect sizes are 23–64 percent of their historical equivalents, indicating significant rates of both persistence and convergence over the last 150 years. Using archival data on tenant contracts, I argue that the low-powered incentives of share agreements discouraged investment by large-scale owners with long-term effects. (JEL D82, G31, N41, N51, Q12, Q15, Q24)

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20230647

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@article{cory2026,
  title        = {{Land Concentration and Long-Run Development in the Frontier United States}},
  author       = {Cory Smith},
  journal      = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20230647},
}

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Land Concentration and Long-Run Development in the Frontier United States

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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