Entrepreneurial overconfidence and SME financing decisions

Rebel A. Cole et al.

Journal of Small Business Management2026https://doi.org/10.1080/00472778.2025.2610272article
AJG 3ABDC A
Weight
0.40

Abstract

This study examines the effect of entrepreneurial under-and-overconfidence on SMEs’ access to external finance. Besides the conventional wisdom that overconfidence leads to sub-optimal financing decisions and higher financing costs, we contend that moderate overconfidence induces entrepreneurs to commit costly effort, which is seen as a favorable signal by financiers. We test this trade-off hypothesis using a large sample of UK SMEs and a novel measure of overconfidence. We find significant non-linear relationships between overconfidence and alternative access to finance measures. Specifically, we show that mildly overconfident entrepreneurs are less likely to be credit rationed than both unconfident and extremely overconfident ones.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/00472778.2025.2610272

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@article{rebel2026,
  title        = {{Entrepreneurial overconfidence and SME financing decisions}},
  author       = {Rebel A. Cole et al.},
  journal      = {Journal of Small Business Management},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/00472778.2025.2610272},
}

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Evidence weight

0.40

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.25 × 0.4 = 0.10
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

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