When, where and for whom: How hypotheticality shapes entrepreneurial evaluations of emerging technologies

What the paper says

Purpose This study aims to examine how the perceived hypotheticality of technological business ideas affects entrepreneurs' opportunity evaluations. Drawing on construal level theory (CLT), we explore how psychological distance – amplified by the abstract nature of emerging technologies – shapes beliefs about the timing, location and social context in which a business opportunity is considered viable. The aim is to advance understanding of cognitive mechanisms underlying early-stage entrepreneurial decision-making under uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach We conducted two vignette-based experimental studies using fictional but realistic technology scenarios in the textile and human recognition technology sectors. Each study employed a between-subjects design to manipulate levels of perceived hypotheticality (high vs low). Participants evaluated when, where and for whom each technological opportunity would be most viable. Data were analyzed using analysis of covariance, controlling for entrepreneurial experience and technological awareness. Findings Results from both studies show that higher hypotheticality increases psychological distance, leading entrepreneurs to associate the opportunity with later timeframes, geographically distant markets and socially dissimilar users. These effects were consistent across both technological domains, supporting the robustness of the findings and the theoretical propositions derived from CLT. Research limitations/implications The use of online samples may limit the generalizability of results, and the study focuses exclusively on technological enablers. Future research should test these mechanisms across different types of opportunities and with varied entrepreneurial populations. Longitudinal studies could also explore how hypotheticality perceptions evolve over time. Practical implications Understanding how hypotheticality shapes opportunity beliefs (OB) helps entrepreneurs and innovation managers make more grounded decisions about early-stage technologies. Tools that reduce psychological distance – such as prototyping or early market testing – can help overcome premature discounting of viable innovations. Social implications By clarifying how psychological distance influences technology adoption judgments, this research can inform policy initiatives that aim to democratize innovation and reduce perceived inaccessibility of advanced technologies in underserved regions or communities. Originality/value This study introduces hypotheticality as a cognitive antecedent of OB and applies CLT to entrepreneurship. It offers a novel framework for understanding how abstraction affects early-stage opportunity evaluations, extending entrepreneurial cognition research into emerging technology contexts.