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Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate

Jonathan I. Dingel & Kyle C. Meng

The Review of Economics and Statistics2026https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.a.1697article
AJG 4ABDC A*
Weight
0.36

Abstract

Global phenomena, such as climate change, often have local impacts that are spatially correlated. We show that greater spatial correlation of productivities can increase international inequality by increasing the correlation between a country's productivity and its gains from trade. We confirm this prediction using a half-century of exogenous variation in the spatial correlation of agricultural productivities induced by a global climatic phenomenon. We introduce this general-equilibrium effect into projections of climate-change impacts that typically omit spatial linkages and therefore do not account for the global scope of climate change. We project greater international inequality, with higher welfare losses across Africa.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.a.1697

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@article{jonathan2026,
  title        = {{Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate}},
  author       = {Jonathan I. Dingel & Kyle C. Meng},
  journal      = {The Review of Economics and Statistics},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.a.1697},
}

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Spatial Correlation, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate

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Evidence weight

0.36

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.16 × 0.4 = 0.06
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.