An integrative theoretical framework to navigate unpredictability

What the paper says

Purpose This conceptual paper proposes an integrative theoretical framework to better understand how unpredictable events are detected and internalized in project environments, with the goal of advancing project risk management beyond deterministic approaches. Design/methodology/approach The study adopts a conceptual approach based on an integrative ontology-epistemology framework. It combines three theoretical perspectives – weak signal theory, sensemaking theory and the practice perspective – to analyze the dynamic and subjective processes involved in managing unpredictability in projects. Findings The paper identifies limitations in traditional risk management, especially its reliance on positivist assumptions and post-internalization strategies. Yet, the paper aligns with the trend in project studies to give room to actors' subjectivity. It demonstrates that unpredictability in projects requires continuous environmental monitoring, adaptive sensemaking and context-sensitive practices. The integrative framework reveals how weak signals, interpretative processes, and practitioner actions interact to shape responses to unforeseeable disruptions. Research limitations/implications This conceptual paper is limited by its theoretical nature and lack of empirical validation. While the integrative framework offers a novel lens for understanding how unpredictable events are detected and internalized, its applicability remains to be tested. Future research should apply the framework to empirical case studies to assess its relevance, refine its components and explore its practical utility across different project types and organizational contexts. Practical implications This framework encourages project practitioners to move beyond traditional risk management by integrating the detection and internalization of unpredictability. It underscores the importance of developing capabilities to identify weak signals, fostering adaptive sensemaking and embedding flexibility into project routines. Practitioners are invited to view unpredictability not as an exception but as an inherent aspect of dynamic environments. By promoting continuous environmental scanning and meaning-making, the framework supports more resilient decision-making and proactive responses – ultimately enhancing the capacity of project teams to navigate uncertainty and capitalize on emerging opportunities. Social implications By framing unpredictability as an ongoing social process, this framework emphasizes the importance of human interpretation, collaboration, and judgment in project environments. It fosters a culture of shared awareness, reflexivity, and continuous learning within teams, promoting more inclusive and participatory approaches to uncertainty management. Recognizing that risk is socially constructed highlights how diverse values, perspectives and experiences influence responses to unpredictable events. This perspective contributes to building organizational cultures that are more adaptive, transparent and responsive – better equipped to engage with complex societal challenges through collective sensemaking and practice-based learning. Originality/value This study contributes a novel theoretical integration that bridges positivist and subjectivist approaches to help manage unpredictability. It provides a multi-layered framework for understanding how unpredictable events are identified, interpreted, and responded to in practice. It enriches the literature on project risk management by advancing an adaptive, practice-based model grounded in the interplay of detection and internalization processes.