A Punctuated Equilibrium Model of Supply Chain Recovery and Resilience: After a Complete Shutdown

Abstract

This article investigates supply chain recovery and resilience by examining how an automotive supply chain in Wuhan was revived after a complete shutdown. The focus is on the recovery process once the supply chain was reactivated. Using punctuated equilibrium theory (PET), the authors illustrate how such a complete shutdown triggers the reconfiguration of deep structures (i.e., durable organizational aspects, such as routines) and accelerates supply chain recovery. Analyzing data from a three‐tier supply chain, the article shows how deep structure changes can produce spillover effects in attaining the “new normal” equilibrium. The findings highlight five critical deep structure elements—workforce resilience, middle‐management empowerment, process digitalization, supply chain rapport, and public partnership—that underpin recovery and resilience. These elements are grouped into two themes: internal capabilities and external relationships. The reconfiguration of these elements facilitates the supply chain's rapid recovery, with newly acquired internal capabilities more likely to be sustained than external relationships in the new equilibrium. The findings further indicate that both the supply chain role and the severity of the disruption shape the extent of deep structure reconfiguration and the pace of recovery. Overall, this article extends PET to the supply chain context, offering a novel perspective on rapid supply chain recovery and resilience.