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Re-Visiting the Debt–Output Nexus from the Perspectives of Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Volatility: An Application of the Threshold Model

Hong Chen et al.

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking2026https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.1960article
ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

Using the Hamilton filter and the panel threshold model, this study provides new evidence of the threshold effects of debt on output in 14 Asia-Pacific countries over the period 2005 to 2019. In the long term, we found a threshold debt value of 73.5 percent of GDP, below which debt has a positive effect on GDP, and the positive effect turns negative when debt goes above the threshold level. In the short term, we noted that debt volatility reduces output volatility, and the impact is greater with larger negative fluctuations in debts. The findings have important policy implications.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.1960

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@article{hong2026,
  title        = {{Re-Visiting the Debt–Output Nexus from the Perspectives of Long-Term Trend and Short-Term Volatility: An Application of the Threshold Model}},
  author       = {Hong Chen et al.},
  journal      = {Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.1960},
}

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.