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Disaggregated Economic Complexity and Inflation in OECD Countries

Raymond Liambee Aor & Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking2026https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2572article
ABDC C
Weight
0.50

What the paper says

This study probes the intricate relationship between economic complexity and inflation dynamics, an area that has been relatively under-researched despite the potential for economic complexity to predict inflation. We focus on selected OECD countries and use panel data from 1998 to 2021. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model, we analyze both short- and long-term dynamics across various components of inflation. Our analysis encompasses both aggregate and disaggregated indicators of complexity, including ECI-Trade, ECI-Technology, and ECI-Research. The results indicate that the impact of economic complexity on inflation differs depending on the type of inflation and the time frame considered. Generally, economic complexity tends to have a deflationary effect on headline and food inflation in the long run. However, core inflation exhibits a positive long-term response, likely due to supply chain dynamics and demand driven by innovation. These findings provide significant policy implications, particularly for inflation-targeting strategies, which need to consider the structural characteristics and the evolving influence of economic complexity in contemporary economies.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2572

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@article{raymond2026,
  title        = {{Disaggregated Economic Complexity and Inflation in OECD Countries}},
  author       = {Raymond Liambee Aor & Afees A. Salisu},
  journal      = {Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking},
  year         = {2026},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.59091/2460-9196.2572},
}

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Disaggregated Economic Complexity and Inflation in OECD Countries

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Evidence weight

0.50

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20
M · momentum0.50 × 0.15 = 0.07
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.