EVIDENCE OF NON-MARKOVIAN BEHAVIOR IN THE PROCESS OF BANK RATING MIGRATIONS

José Eduardo Gómez-González & Nicholas M. Kiefer

Latin American Journal of Economics2009https://doi.org/10.4067/s0717-68212009000100002article
ABDC C
Weight
0.43

What the paper says

This paper estimates transition matrices for the ratings on financial institutions, using an unusually informative data set. We show that the process of rating migration exhibits significant non-Markovian behavior, in the sense that the transition intensities are affected by macroeconomic and bank-specific variables. We illustrate how the use of a continuous time framework may improve the estimation of the transition probabilities. However, the time homogeneity assumption, frequently done in economic applications, does not hold, even for short time intervals. Thus, the information provided by migrations alone is not enough to forecast the future behavior of ratings. The stage of the business cycle should be taken into account, and individual characteristics of banks must be considered as well.

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https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4067/s0717-68212009000100002

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@article{josé2009,
  title        = {{EVIDENCE OF NON-MARKOVIAN BEHAVIOR IN THE PROCESS OF BANK RATING MIGRATIONS}},
  author       = {José Eduardo Gómez-González & Nicholas M. Kiefer},
  journal      = {Latin American Journal of Economics},
  year         = {2009},
  doi          = {https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.4067/s0717-68212009000100002},
}

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Evidence weight

0.43

Balanced mode · F 0.40 / M 0.15 / V 0.05 / R 0.40

F · citation impact0.22 × 0.4 = 0.09
M · momentum0.80 × 0.15 = 0.12
V · venue signal0.50 × 0.05 = 0.03
R · text relevance †0.50 × 0.4 = 0.20

† Text relevance is estimated at 0.50 on the detail page — for your query’s actual relevance score, open this paper from a search result.