Economic or political uncertainty in early life reduces later tolerance

Abstract

• Economic or political uncertainty in early life reduces subsequent tolerance. • Uncertainty at ages 6–12 and 18–25 most strongly reduces adult tolerance. • Uncertainty exposure after age 25 is rarely related to later tolerance. • Strong democratic traditions neutralize uncertainty’s long-run effect on tolerance. This study examines whether exposure to economic-political uncertainty during formative years has enduring effects on tolerance. To quantify uncertainty, we use the World Uncertainty Index, a text-based measure of the frequency of the term “uncertain” in the country report of the Economist Intelligence Unit. We link its mean value during six age intervals to later-in-life tolerance toward gays and lesbians, using data from the European Social Survey. Employing a quasi-experimental design, we document a robust negative relationship: more uncertainty during formative years predicts diminished tolerance in adulthood. This effect appears most clearly during middle childhood (ages 6–12) and the transition to adulthood (ages 18–25). Exposure after 25 almost never has an impact. The main result is moderated by democratic quality. In countries with robust democratic traditions, procedural legitimacy and participatory socialization seem to undo the negative impact of uncertainty. These findings demonstrate that uncertainty has long-term negative cultural consequences, but also that democratic institutions foster resilience.