Elections that inspire: Effects of Black mayors on educational attainment

Abstract

We study the impact of the election of a Black mayor in Brazil on Black students’ educational attainment. Using a regression discontinuity design in close elections, we find that Black students in municipalities where Black candidates won are more likely to register for the National High School Examination, attend university, and graduate. Our evidence is consistent with changes in students’ aspirations: secondary/tertiary education is not a mayor’s primary responsibility; Black mayors do not perform better in policies that affect our outcomes; and effects are strong for Black students from both public and private schools, while weaker for White students from public schools. • Electing a Black mayor increases Black students’ ENEM registration by roughly 25%–50% in the years after the election, with effects lasting for at least 8 years. • Higher education outcomes also improve: Black youths born in treated municipalities are substantially more likely to enter and graduate from university. • White students experience small positive effects, indicating no evidence of crowd-out. • No meaningful changes occur in school resources, spending, or test scores, indicating that policy changes are unlikely to explain the results. • Patterns across public and private school students suggest a role-model channel, whereby increased political representation shifts aspirations and educational trajectories among Black youth.